# Macro Stress — 10 November 2026 Cross-asset market stress report for 10 November 2026: Rates and inflation, Spreads and prices, Cross-asset stress confirmation are Elevated or Severe. Scores are research indicators, not loss probabilities. ## Desk read Rates and inflation, Spreads and prices, Cross-asset stress confirmation are Elevated or Severe. ## Layer scores | Layer | Score | State | | --- | --- | --- | | Rates and inflation | 60 | Elevated | | Spreads and prices | 60 | Elevated | | Funding transmission | 50 | Contained | | Cross-asset stress confirmation | 58 | Elevated | ## Risk factors | Factor | Score | State | | --- | --- | --- | | Credit spreads | 61 | Elevated | | Price trend | 58 | Building | | Volatility | 60 | Elevated | | Rates | 73 | Elevated | | Inflation | 55 | Building | | Oil stress | 39 | Contained | | Funding | 58 | Building | | Labour | 47 | Contained | ## Limits Downturn probabilities are unavailable pending sufficient historical validation. - Constituent breadth, A/D and highs/lows: historical membership and price feed required. - Earnings revisions: consistent consensus estimates and revision history required; direction unknown. - Private credit: filings extraction and representative issuer coverage required. - Forced selling: dealer gamma, CTA and vol-control exposure feeds unavailable. - VIX3M, VVIX and SKEW are diagnostics only; futures contango, relative indices and equity correlation still require data. - Credit comparisons have limited historical coverage. - Liquidity is a balance-sheet proxy; historical release timing is unverified. ## Published inputs | Input | Reading | Observation date | | --- | --- | --- | | HY OAS | 334 bp | 2026-11-09 | HY widening · 1 sessions | -8.000000000000007 bp | 2026-11-09 | HY widening · 5 sessions | -9.00000000000003 bp | 2026-11-09 | HY widening · 20 sessions | 23 bp | 2026-11-09 | HY widening · 60 sessions | 67 bp | 2026-11-09 | HY widening · 63 sessions | 61.999999999999964 bp | 2026-11-09 | IG OAS | 91 bp | 2026-11-09 | IG widening · 1 sessions | -2.0000000000000018 bp | 2026-11-09 | IG widening · 5 sessions | -2.9999999999999916 bp | 2026-11-09 | IG widening · 20 sessions | 8.000000000000007 bp | 2026-11-09 | IG widening · 60 sessions | 10.999999999999998 bp | 2026-11-09 | IG widening · 63 sessions | 12 bp | 2026-11-09 | HY minus IG | 242.99999999999997 bp | 2026-11-09 | HY–IG divergence · 20 sessions | 15 bp | 2026-11-09 | HY acceleration · 20 sessions | -16.999999999999993 bp | 2026-11-09 | C&I lending standards | 1.7 % | 2026-10-01 | C&I tightening · quarterly change | 1.7 pp | 2026-10-01 | S&P drawdown · 252 sessions | -3.440240544422324 % | 2026-11-09 | S&P return · 20 sessions | -3.295658901225018 % | 2026-11-09 | S&P return · 60 sessions | -3.02886294979553 % | 2026-11-09 | S&P distance from 50DMA | -1.6449652048386776 % | 2026-11-09 | S&P distance from 200DMA | 3.025495301051717 % | 2026-11-09 | 50DMA relative to 200DMA | 4.748572877450852 % | 2026-11-09 | VIX | 19.92 % | 2026-11-09 | VIX change · 5 sessions | -1.2299999999999969 pp | 2026-11-09 | VIX change · 20 sessions | 4.710000000000001 pp | 2026-11-09 | S&P realized volatility · 20 sessions | 22.109829037445074 % | 2026-11-09 | VIX / VIX3M · implied maturity slope | 0.9553956834532374 ratio | 2026-11-09 | VVIX · volatility of volatility | Unavailable | Unknown | SKEW · tail pricing | Unavailable | Unknown | VIX minus realized volatility | -2.1898290374450724 pp | 2026-11-09 | 10Y real yield | 2.66 % | 2026-11-09 | 10Y Treasury | 4.88 % | 2026-11-09 | 2Y Treasury | 4.56 % | 2026-11-09 | 3M Treasury | 4.24 % | 2026-11-09 | 10Y breakeven | 2.22 % | 2026-11-09 | 10Y term premium · THREEFYTP10 | 0.8738 % | 2026-11-06 | 10Y real yield change · 63 sessions | 0.22999999999999998 pp | 2026-11-09 | 10Y yield change · 63 sessions | 0.17999999999999972 pp | 2026-11-09 | 10Y–3M curve | 0.64 pp | 2026-11-09 | Curve inversion pressure | 0 pp | 2026-11-09 | Effective Fed funds · monthly | 3.88 % | 2026-10-01 | Ex-post real policy rate · core PCE | 0.6288403970379797 pp | 2026-09-01 | CPI YoY | 3.7172508442689933 % | 2026-09-01 | CPI · 3m annualized | 5.723235103413082 % | 2026-10-01 | Core CPI YoY | 2.565840844021827 % | 2026-09-01 | Core CPI · 3m annualized | 3.7464069586534032 % | 2026-10-01 | PPI commodities YoY | 12.842391262869501 % | 2026-09-01 | Brent return · 21 sessions | -14.723926380368102 % | 2026-11-03 | Brent return · 63 sessions | 23.519907674552787 % | 2026-11-03 | Brent return · 252 sessions | 63.554400977995115 % | 2026-11-03 | US regular gasoline | 3.995 $/gallon | 2026-11-09 | US regular gasoline return · 4 weeks | -7.758023551142934 % | 2026-11-09 | US regular gasoline return · 13 weeks | -0.2745881178232712 % | 2026-11-09 | US regular gasoline return · 52 weeks | 30.72643979057592 % | 2026-11-09 | US diesel | 6.127 $/gallon | 2026-11-09 | US diesel return · 4 weeks | -0.8415601229972536 % | 2026-11-09 | US diesel return · 13 weeks | 16.54936275442267 % | 2026-11-09 | US diesel return · 52 weeks | 59.68204326296585 % | 2026-11-09 | Brent volatility · 20 available oil prints | 61.46354443873682 % | 2026-11-03 | Wednesday liquidity proxy · 1 weeks | 81.84500000000025 $bn | 2026-11-04 | Wednesday liquidity proxy · 4 weeks | -47.766999999999825 $bn | 2026-11-04 | Wednesday liquidity proxy · 13 weeks | -5.920000000000073 $bn | 2026-11-04 | SOFR minus IORB | -2.0000000000000018 bp | 2026-11-09 | Reserve balances | 2930.088 $bn | 2026-11-04 | NFCI | -0.459 index | 2026-10-30 | NFCICREDIT | 0.002 index | 2026-10-30 | NFCILEVERAGE | 0.169 index | 2026-10-30 | Claims 4w average above 52w low | 0 % | 2026-10-31 | Continuing claims · 13w slope | -7774.725274725275 claims/week | 2026-10-24 | Continuing claims increasing streak | 1 weeks | 2026-10-24 | Sahm rule | 0 pp | 2026-10-01 | Unemployment change · 3m | 0 pp | 2026-10-01 | Payroll growth · 3m | 0.25868254427814374 % | 2026-10-01 | Manufacturing hours change · 3m | 0 hours | 2026-10-01 | Temporary employment growth · 3m | 1.1411411411411443 % | 2026-10-01 ## Sources AWHMAN, BAMLC0A0CM, BAMLH0A0HYM2, CBOE_SKEW, CBOE_VIX3M, CBOE_VVIX, CCSA, CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL, DCOILBRENTEU, DFII10, DGS10, DGS2, DGS3MO, DRTSCILM, FEDFUNDS, GASDESW, GASREGW, IC4WSA, IORB, NFCI, NFCICREDIT, NFCILEVERAGE, PAYEMS, PCEPILFE, PPIACO, RRPONTSYD, SAHMREALTIME, SOFR, SP500, T10Y3M, T10YIE, TEMPHELPS, THREEFYTP10, UNRATE, VIXCLS, WALCL, WDTGAL, WRESBAL