# Macro Stress — 4 November 2026

Cross-asset market stress report for 4 November 2026: Rates and inflation, Spreads and prices are Elevated or Severe.

Historical reconstruction created 2026-11-10T11:59:12.404Z; evidence cutoff 2026-11-04T23:59:59Z. This was not published on the historical date. Economic vintages and cross-checked equity closes have different revision-history coverage. Source details: https://www.macrostress.com/reports/2026-11-04.

Scores are research indicators, not loss probabilities.

## Desk read

Rates and inflation, Spreads and prices are Elevated or Severe.

## Layer scores

| Layer | Score | State |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Rates and inflation | 59 | Elevated |
| Spreads and prices | 56 | Elevated |
| Funding transmission | 53 | Contained |
| Cross-asset stress confirmation | 50 | Contained |

## Risk factors

| Factor | Score | State |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Credit spreads | 63 | Elevated |
| Price trend | 51 | Contained |
| Volatility | 48 | Contained |
| Rates | 74 | Elevated |
| Inflation | 52 | Contained |
| Oil stress | 39 | Contained |
| Funding | 69 | Elevated |
| Labour | 48 | Contained |

## Limits

Downturn probabilities are unavailable pending sufficient historical validation.

- Constituent breadth, A/D and highs/lows: historical membership and price feed required.
- Earnings revisions: consistent consensus estimates and revision history required; direction unknown.
- Private credit: filings extraction and representative issuer coverage required.
- Forced selling: dealer gamma, CTA and vol-control exposure feeds unavailable.
- VIX3M, VVIX and SKEW are diagnostics only; futures contango, relative indices and equity correlation still require data.
- Credit comparisons have limited historical coverage.
- Liquidity is a balance-sheet proxy; historical release timing is unverified.
- Cboe-only diagnostic vintage archives were not collected; no present-day Cboe history was substituted.

## Published inputs

| Input | Reading | Observation date |
| --- | --- | --- |
| HY OAS | 332 bp | 2026-11-04
| HY widening · 1 sessions | -8.000000000000007 bp | 2026-11-04
| HY widening · 5 sessions | 17.99999999999997 bp | 2026-11-04
| HY widening · 20 sessions | 23 bp | 2026-11-04
| HY widening · 60 sessions | 59.999999999999964 bp | 2026-11-04
| HY widening · 63 sessions | 60.999999999999986 bp | 2026-11-04
| IG OAS | 91 bp | 2026-11-04
| IG widening · 1 sessions | -2.0000000000000018 bp | 2026-11-04
| IG widening · 5 sessions | 5.000000000000004 bp | 2026-11-04
| IG widening · 20 sessions | 9.000000000000007 bp | 2026-11-04
| IG widening · 60 sessions | 12 bp | 2026-11-04
| IG widening · 63 sessions | 13 bp | 2026-11-04
| HY minus IG | 240.99999999999997 bp | 2026-11-04
| HY–IG divergence · 20 sessions | 13.999999999999972 bp | 2026-11-04
| HY acceleration · 20 sessions | -14.999999999999991 bp | 2026-11-04
| C&I lending standards | 1.7 % | 2026-10-01
| C&I tightening · quarterly change | 1.7 pp | 2026-10-01
| S&P drawdown · 252 sessions | -1.6665963245610427 % | 2026-11-04
| S&P return · 20 sessions | -1.4503119163984612 % | 2026-11-04
| S&P return · 60 sessions | -0.5121503066690791 % | 2026-11-04
| S&P distance from 50DMA | -0.05653733654522597 % | 2026-11-04
| S&P distance from 200DMA | 5.0308399734403375 % | 2026-11-04
| 50DMA relative to 200DMA | 5.090255204701655 % | 2026-11-04
| VIX | 16.61 % | 2026-11-04
| VIX change · 5 sessions | -0.3000000000000007 pp | 2026-11-04
| VIX change · 20 sessions | 1.5299999999999994 pp | 2026-11-04
| S&P realized volatility · 20 sessions | 12.91500858630282 % | 2026-11-04
| VIX / VIX3M · implied maturity slope | Unavailable | Unknown
| VVIX · volatility of volatility | Unavailable | Unknown
| SKEW · tail pricing | Unavailable | Unknown
| VIX minus realized volatility | 3.6949914136971795 pp | 2026-11-04
| 10Y real yield | 2.65 % | 2026-11-03
| 10Y Treasury | 4.95 % | 2026-11-03
| 2Y Treasury | 4.61 % | 2026-11-03
| 3M Treasury | 4.21 % | 2026-11-03
| 10Y breakeven | 2.26 % | 2026-11-04
| 10Y term premium · THREEFYTP10 | 0.9089 % | 2026-10-30
| 10Y real yield change · 63 sessions | 0.23999999999999977 pp | 2026-11-03
| 10Y yield change · 63 sessions | 0.3200000000000003 pp | 2026-11-03
| 10Y–3M curve | 0.69 pp | 2026-11-04
| Curve inversion pressure | 0 pp | 2026-11-04
| Effective Fed funds · monthly | 3.88 % | 2026-10-01
| Ex-post real policy rate · core PCE | 0.6288403970379797 pp | 2026-09-01
| CPI YoY | 3.7172508442689933 % | 2026-09-01
| CPI · 3m annualized | 4.562342321211887 % | 2026-09-01
| Core CPI YoY | 2.565840844021827 % | 2026-09-01
| Core CPI · 3m annualized | 3.4124037788220596 % | 2026-09-01
| PPI commodities YoY | 12.842391262869501 % | 2026-09-01
| Brent return · 21 sessions | -14.723926380368102 % | 2026-11-03
| Brent return · 63 sessions | 23.519907674552787 % | 2026-11-03
| Brent return · 252 sessions | 63.554400977995115 % | 2026-11-03
| US regular gasoline | 4.153 $/gallon | 2026-11-02
| US regular gasoline return · 4 weeks | -4.616444648599005 % | 2026-11-02
| US regular gasoline return · 13 weeks | 1.8141701397401233 % | 2026-11-02
| US regular gasoline return · 52 weeks | 37.5621066578337 % | 2026-11-02
| US diesel | 6.292 $/gallon | 2026-11-02
| US diesel return · 4 weeks | 1.5002419745120177 % | 2026-11-02
| US diesel return · 13 weeks | 17.651458489154813 % | 2026-11-02
| US diesel return · 52 weeks | 67.65254463096188 % | 2026-11-02
| Brent volatility · 20 available oil prints | 61.46354443873682 % | 2026-11-03
| Wednesday liquidity proxy · 1 weeks | -78.38699999999972 $bn | 2026-10-28
| Wednesday liquidity proxy · 4 weeks | -17.618999999999687 $bn | 2026-10-28
| Wednesday liquidity proxy · 13 weeks | -35.344999999999345 $bn | 2026-10-28
| SOFR minus IORB | 7.000000000000028 bp | 2026-11-03
| Reserve balances | 2893.77 $bn | 2026-10-28
| NFCI | -0.459 index | 2026-10-30
| NFCICREDIT | 0.002 index | 2026-10-30
| NFCILEVERAGE | 0.169 index | 2026-10-30
| Claims 4w average above 52w low | 0 % | 2026-10-24
| Continuing claims · 13w slope | -8961.538461538461 claims/week | 2026-10-17
| Continuing claims increasing streak | 0 weeks | 2026-10-17
| Sahm rule | 0 pp | 2026-09-01
| Unemployment change · 3m | 0 pp | 2026-09-01
| Payroll growth · 3m | 0.0956624625531699 % | 2026-09-01
| Manufacturing hours change · 3m | 0.29999999999999716 hours | 2026-09-01
| Temporary employment growth · 3m | -0.8255234297108616 % | 2026-09-01

## Sources

AWHMAN, BAMLC0A0CM, BAMLH0A0HYM2, CBOE_SKEW, CBOE_VIX3M, CBOE_VVIX, CCSA, CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL, DCOILBRENTEU, DFII10, DGS10, DGS2, DGS3MO, DRTSCILM, FEDFUNDS, GASDESW, GASREGW, IC4WSA, IORB, NFCI, NFCICREDIT, NFCILEVERAGE, PAYEMS, PCEPILFE, PPIACO, RRPONTSYD, SAHMREALTIME, SOFR, SP500, T10Y3M, T10YIE, TEMPHELPS, THREEFYTP10, UNRATE, VIXCLS, WALCL, WDTGAL, WRESBAL