Risk Monitor
Market observations
In progressRisk assessments
WaitingReport history
WaitingDisclaimer. For informational and research purposes only. Not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, and not an offer or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security or to take any action.
Macro Stress
Daily evidence across rates, credit, funding, liquidity and deleveraging.
Cross-asset stress
67/ 100
67% evidence coveragePartial
54/ 100
50% evidence coveragePartial
47/ 100
75% evidence coveragePartial
47/ 100
75% evidence coveragePartial
Scores are research indicators, not loss probabilities. Coverage and limitations remain visible alongside each reading.
Risk factors
15 Oct · +8 bp · 7d
15 Oct · +4 bp · 7d
15 Oct · +2 bp · 7d
15 Oct · +4.00 bp · 7d
1 Jul · 0 % · 7d
| Date | Credit spreads | Price trend | Volatility | Rates | Inflation | Oil stress | Funding | Labour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 62 | 47 | 46 | 82 | 39 | 21 | 54 | 48 |
| 2026-10-04 | 62 | 47 | 46 | 82 | 39 | 21 | 54 | 48 |
| 2026-10-05 | 57 | 47 | 45 | 83 | 39 | 21 | 55 | 48 |
| 2026-10-06 | 58 | 44 | 45 | 83 | 39 | 21 | 56 | 48 |
| 2026-10-07 | 54 | 42 | 43 | 82 | 39 | 45 | 60 | 48 |
| 2026-10-08 | 56 | 43 | 42 | 82 | 39 | 45 | 57 | 48 |
| 2026-10-09 | 58 | 44 | 41 | 81 | 39 | 45 | 56 | 48 |
| 2026-10-10 | 58 | 43 | 41 | 81 | 39 | 45 | 56 | 48 |
| 2026-10-11 | 58 | 43 | 41 | 81 | 39 | 45 | 56 | 48 |
| 2026-10-12 | 58 | 43 | 42 | 81 | 39 | 45 | 56 | 48 |
| 2026-10-13 | 56 | 42 | 41 | 81 | 39 | 45 | 56 | 48 |
| 2026-10-14 | 58 | 42 | 41 | 81 | 52 | 45 | 58 | 48 |
| 2026-10-15 | 61 | 46 | 44 | 80 | 52 | 60 | 51 | 48 |
| 2026-10-16 | 61 | 46 | 45 | 79 | 52 | 60 | 52 | 48 |
| 2026-10-17 | 61 | 49 | 46 | 79 | 52 | 60 | 52 | 48 |
79 / 79 features within configured age limits
Latest-release completeness is not verified.
7 / 12 distinct risk families
Partial evidence · shared families counted once
Availability is not statistical independence.
Stress states
Current relative-stress scores and escalation states are available.
Downturn probabilities are withheld pending historical validation.
Source observations are retrieved through FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Passing an age check does not mean the latest available release is included.
Assessment limits: Missing valuation, breadth, earnings, private credit, positioning. Available readings cannot establish an all-clear.
Rates & refinancing pressure
2.78%
10Y real yield · as of 2026-10-15
10Y Treasury 5.10% · 2026-10-15
+47 bp
Change over 63 S&P sessions
As of 2026-10-15
1.07%
10Y model estimate · THREEFYTP10
As of 2026-10-09
+83 bp
10Y minus 3M · positive
As of 2026-10-16
Recent changes cover 63 sessions, not a one-day shock. Falling yields alone do not establish lower recession risk.
Input-cost shock
-3.2%
Brent · 21 S&P sessions
As of 2026-10-14
+55.8% over 63 sessions · as of 2026-10-14
86.7%
Qualifying oil prints · last 30 S&P sessions
As of 2026-10-14
60 / 100
This is the oil factor score.
As of 2026-10-14
A low reading does not rule out a sharp recent rise.
Recent moves and pump prices provide context. These readings do not identify the cause of an oil move or estimate downturn probability.
Elevated evidence: Rates.
Missing: Valuation.
Elevated evidence: Credit.
Missing: Breadth, Earnings.
Missing: Private credit.
Elevated evidence: Credit.
Missing: Positioning.
Downturn probabilities are unavailable pending sufficient historical validation.
A selected issuer sample, not an industry estimate. Reporting lags, mark uncertainty and different portfolio mixes limit comparisons. Private-credit family coverage remains unavailable.
| Issuer | Non-accrual | Basis & period | Publication & source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) | 2.4% | Amortized costTotal investments at amortized cost30 June 2026 | 2026-07-29 · filingChecked 2026-09-16 |
| Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) | 2.8% | CostTotal portfolio at cost30 June 2026 | 2026-08-05 · filingChecked 2026-09-17 |
| Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL) | 3.6% | Amortized costTotal investments at amortized cost30 June 2026 | 2026-08-06 · filingChecked 2026-09-17 |
No blended non-accrual rate is calculated. Comparable multi-period PIK, NAV, leverage and borrower-maturity coverage are still incomplete.
16 Oct · -1.95 % · 7d
16 Oct · -1.90 % · 7d
16 Oct · -0.30 % · 7d
16 Oct · -2.10 % · 7d
16 Oct · -2.40 % · 7d
16 Oct · -0.17 % · 7d
15 Oct · +1.05 % · 7d
15 Oct · +3.45 pp · 7d
16 Oct · +0.53 % · 7d
15 Oct · -0.09 % · 7d
15 Oct · -0.12 % · 7d
15 Oct · -0.08 pp · 7d
9 Oct · -0.01 % · 7d
16 Oct · 0 pp · 7d
1 Sept · +0.36 % · 7d
1 Sept · +0.12 % · 7d
1 Sept · +4.38 % · 7d
1 Sept · +1.44 % · 7d
14 Oct · -25.94 % · 7d
14 Oct · +157.19 $bn · 7d
15 Oct · +2.00 bp · 7d
9 Oct · -0.01 index · 7d
10 Oct · +0.13 % · 7d
3 Oct · -324.18 claims/week · 7d
1 Sept · 0 pp · 7d
1 Sept · 0 pp · 7d
1 Sept · 0 % · 7d
Confirmation
Watch for broader deterioration in credit conditions and borrowing access.
Watch for market weakness accompanied by worsening credit conditions.
Funding, bank lending and labour are assessed separately from market-price stress.
Watch for stress across market, credit and funding conditions. Positioning evidence remains unavailable, so it is not a direct measure of liquidity or forced selling.